28 Jun · 09:30 MESZLow · Slight Edge
TL
🇺🇦Tomas Liska
ELO 1482
FormLLLWW
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Makara
MM
🇺🇦Michal Makara
ELO 1498
FormWLLWW
48%
52%
🔥 Underdog lean · Liska🌟Makara rarely covers set handicap as favourite 27% (15)
Fair odds · Makara
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 50% · 2.00· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 33%Total ~78 pts
1-3
19%
2-3
19%
3-2
18%
3-1
18%
0-3
13%
Elo Gap+16
H2H41-40
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.