28 Jun · 09:15 MESZLow · Coin Flip
DG
🇺🇦David Gasparovic
ELO 1633
FormWWWLW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Heinzl
LH
🇺🇦Lukas Heinzl
ELO 1638
FormWWWWL
49%
51%
🌟Heinzl rarely covers set handicap as favourite 32% (41)
Fair odds · Heinzl
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 42% · 2.36· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 32%Total ~78 pts
1-3
19%
2-3
19%
3-2
19%
3-1
19%
0-3
13%
Elo Gap+5
H2H4-2
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.