28 Jun · 17:00 MESZLow · Coin Flip
JB
🇺🇦Jan Botka
ELO 1500
50%Win chancemodel fair 2.00Botka
PA
🇺🇦Petr Abraham
ELO 1500
50%
50%
🌟Abraham stays under total as underdog 77% (13)
Fair odds · Botka
Model 50% · 2.00vsMarket 39% · 2.55· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 31%Total ~77 pts
3-1
19%
3-2
19%
2-3
19%
1-3
19%
3-0
13%
Elo Gap+0
H2H0-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.