28 Jun · 16:05 MESZLow · Coin Flip
RN
🇺🇦Ruslan Novak
ELO 1499
FormLLW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Novak
AR
🇺🇦Andrii Regush
ELO 1485
FormWLL
51%
49%
🌟Novak stays under total as favourite 67% (24)
Fair odds · Novak
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 46% · 2.16· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 32%Total ~75 pts
3-1
19%
3-2
19%
2-3
18%
1-3
18%
3-0
13%
Elo Gap+14
H2H0-1
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.