28 Jun · 16:15 MESZLow · Slight Edge
MS
🇺🇦Matej Svitac
ELO 1532
FormWWWW
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Svitac
LK
🇺🇦Leon Kolman
ELO 1496
FormLWWL
54%
46%
🔥 Underdog lean · Kolman🌟Kolman covers set handicap as underdog 67% (12)
Fair odds · Svitac
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 61% · 1.65· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 34%Total ~78 pts
3-1
20%
3-2
19%
2-3
18%
1-3
17%
3-0
14%
Elo Gap+36
H2H2-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.