28 Jun · 12:30 MESZLow · Slight Edge
MC
🇺🇦Marcel Cmil
ELO 1495
FormLWLW
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Cmil
JJ
🇺🇦Jakub Dufek Jnr
ELO 1471
FormLLLL
53%
47%
🔥 Underdog lean · Jnr🌟Jnr stays under total as underdog 67% (12)
Fair odds · Cmil
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 56% · 1.79· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 33%Total ~77 pts
3-1
20%
3-2
19%
2-3
18%
1-3
18%
3-0
14%
Elo Gap+24
H2H1-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.