28 Jun · 08:30 MESZLow · Slight Edge
TL
🇺🇦Tomas Liska
ELO 1484
FormLLLW
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Rulc
LR
🇺🇦Lukas Rulc
ELO 1500
48%
52%
🔥 Underdog lean · Liska🌟Rulc goes over total as favourite 63% (30)
Fair odds · Rulc
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 58% · 1.73· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 33%Total ~80 pts
1-3
19%
2-3
19%
3-2
18%
3-1
18%
0-3
13%
Elo Gap+16
H2H0-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.