28 Jun · 10:20 MESZLow · Slight Edge
SY
🇺🇦Stefan Yakimenko
ELO 1500
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Yakimenko
VS
🇺🇦Vasiliy Smyk
ELO 1465
FormLLLLL
54%
46%
🌟Yakimenko stays under total as favourite 65% (17)
Fair odds · Yakimenko
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 38% · 2.67· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 34%Total ~77 pts
3-1
20%
3-2
19%
2-3
18%
1-3
17%
3-0
14%
Elo Gap+35
H2H0-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.