28 Jun · 07:25 MESZLow · Slight Edge
VD
🇺🇦Volodymyr Dobrovolskyi
ELO 1482
FormLWLLL
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Kvak
IK
🇺🇦Ihor Kvak
ELO 1498
FormWWLWL
48%
52%
🌟Dobrovolskyi stays under total as underdog 70% (27)
Fair odds · Kvak
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 59% · 1.70· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 33%Total ~75 pts
1-3
19%
2-3
19%
3-2
18%
3-1
18%
0-3
13%
Elo Gap+16
H2H1-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.