28 Jun · 21:30 MESZLow · Slight Edge
MS
🇺🇦Martin Stehlik
ELO 1411
FormLLWWW
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Stehlik
JM
🇺🇦Jan Mares
ELO 1392
FormLWLLL
52%
48%
Fair odds · Stehlik
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 59% · 1.70· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 33%Total ~77 pts
3-1
20%
3-2
19%
2-3
18%
1-3
18%
3-0
13%
Elo Gap+19
H2H2-1
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.