28 Jun · 19:05 MESZLow · Slight Edge
MK
🇺🇦Maksym Khomenko
ELO 1471
FormWLWLL
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Novak
RN
🇺🇦Ruslan Novak
ELO 1508
FormLLWLW
46%
54%
🌟Novak stays under total as favourite 67% (24)
Fair odds · Novak
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 61% · 1.65· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 34%Total ~73 pts
1-3
20%
2-3
19%
3-2
18%
3-1
17%
0-3
14%
Elo Gap+37
H2H23-22
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.