28 Jun · 16:00 MESZLow · Slight Edge
JB
🇺🇦Jan Botka
ELO 1505
FormWWLWW
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Botka
RM
🇺🇦Roman Merkl
ELO 1480
FormWLLWL
53%
47%
🌟Merkl covers set handicap as underdog 77% (22)
Fair odds · Botka
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 42% · 2.36· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 33%Total ~78 pts
3-1
20%
3-2
19%
2-3
18%
1-3
18%
3-0
14%
Elo Gap+25
H2H0-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.