28 Jun · 22:15 MESZLow · Slight Edge
IH
🇺🇦Iurii Hrekh
ELO 1556
FormLWWWL
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Pohonov
OP
🇺🇦Oleksandr Pohonov
ELO 1598
FormWWWLL
46%
54%
🌟Pohonov rarely covers set handicap as favourite 33% (43)
Fair odds · Pohonov
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 50% · 2.00· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~77 pts
1-3
21%
2-3
20%
3-2
18%
3-1
17%
0-3
14%
Elo Gap+42
H2H4-4
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.