29 Jun · 01:45 MESZLow · Coin Flip
DS
🇺🇦Dmytro Shchegelskyi
ELO 1512
FormLLLLL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Chaikovskyi
BC
🇺🇦Bohdan Chaikovskyi
ELO 1518
FormLWLWW
49%
51%
🔥 Underdog lean · Shchegelskyi🌟Shchegelskyi covers set handicap as underdog 68% (19)
Fair odds · Chaikovskyi
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 54% · 1.86· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 32%Total ~79 pts
1-3
19%
2-3
19%
3-2
19%
3-1
18%
0-3
13%
Elo Gap+6
H2H4-2
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.