29 Jun · 04:45 MESZMedium · Model Lean
DS
🇺🇦Dmytro Shchegelskyi
ELO 1512
FormLLLLL
59%Win chancemodel fair 1.69Pohonov
OP
🇺🇦Oleksandr Pohonov
ELO 1598
FormWWWLL
41%
59%
🔥 Underdog lean · Shchegelskyi🌟Shchegelskyi covers set handicap as underdog 68% (19)
Fair odds · Pohonov
Model 59% · 1.69vsMarket 58% · 1.73· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 39%Total ~78 pts
1-3
22%
2-3
20%
3-2
17%
0-3
17%
3-1
15%
Elo Gap+86
H2H3-0
Why this call
Why this pick? · 3 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+86)
- ✓Better recent form (3-2)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (3-0)