29 Jun · 00:55 MESZMedium · Model Lean
SC
🇺🇦Serhii Chelpanov
ELO 1484
FormLLLLW
58%Win chancemodel fair 1.72Chepurnyi
AC
🇺🇦Artem Chepurnyi
ELO 1558
FormLLLWL
42%
58%
🌟Chelpanov rarely covers set handicap as underdog 22% (23)
Fair odds · Chepurnyi
Model 58% · 1.72vsMarket 63% · 1.60· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~78 pts
1-3
22%
2-3
20%
3-2
17%
0-3
16%
3-1
16%
Elo Gap+74
H2H59-36
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+74)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (59-36)