28 Jun · 14:00 MESZMedium · Model Lean
JJ
🇺🇦Jakub Dufek Jnr
ELO 1464
FormLLLLW
56%Win chancemodel fair 1.79Jnr
PM
🇺🇦Patrik Muller
ELO 1405
FormLWLLL
56%
44%
🔥 Underdog lean · Muller🌟Muller covers set handicap as underdog 76% (21)
Fair odds · Jnr
Model 56% · 1.79vsMarket 59% · 1.70· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~77 pts
3-1
21%
3-2
20%
2-3
17%
1-3
16%
3-0
15%
Elo Gap+59
H2H17-9
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+59)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (17-9)