29 Jun · 11:15 MESZLow · Slight Edge
OK
🇺🇦Ondrej Kaderabek
ELO 1554
FormWWLLL
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Kaderabek
RP
🇺🇦Radovan Pisa
ELO 1516
FormLLWLW
54%
46%
🔥 Underdog lean · Pisa🌟Pisa covers set handicap as underdog 70% (20)
Fair odds · Kaderabek
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 49% · 2.06· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~78 pts
3-1
20%
3-2
19%
2-3
18%
1-3
17%
3-0
14%
Elo Gap+38
H2H8-13
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.