29 Jun · 10:00 MESZMedium · Model Lean
VK
🇺🇦Valerii Kolesnykov
ELO 1490
FormLLLLL
57%Win chancemodel fair 1.75Troyan
AT
🇺🇦Andrey Troyan
ELO 1561
FormWLLLW
43%
57%
🌟Kolesnykov covers set handicap as underdog 77% (22)
Fair odds · Troyan
Model 57% · 1.75vsMarket 66% · 1.51· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~77 pts
1-3
22%
2-3
20%
3-2
17%
0-3
16%
3-1
16%
Elo Gap+71
H2H27-11
Why this call
Why this pick? · 3 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+71)
- ✓Better recent form (2-3)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (27-11)