29 Jun · 08:35 MESZLow · Coin Flip
RN
🇺🇦Ruslan Novak
ELO 1481
FormLWLLW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Novak
AR
🇺🇦Andrii Regush
ELO 1473
FormLLLWL
51%
49%
🌟Novak stays under total as favourite 67% (24)
Fair odds · Novak
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 42% · 2.36· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 32%Total ~78 pts
3-1
19%
3-2
19%
2-3
19%
1-3
18%
3-0
13%
Elo Gap+8
H2H1-5
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.