29 Jun · 12:00 MESZLow · Coin Flip
AT
🇺🇦Andrey Troyan
ELO 1561
FormWLLLW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Karpenko
OK
🇺🇦Oleh Karpenko
ELO 1570
FormLWWLW
49%
51%
Fair odds · Karpenko
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 41% · 2.43· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 32%Total ~76 pts
1-3
19%
2-3
19%
3-2
19%
3-1
18%
0-3
13%
Elo Gap+9
H2H25-27
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.