29 Jun · 11:50 MESZLow · Slight Edge
VM
🇺🇦Volodymyr Melnykov
ELO 1440
FormLWWLL
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Leonenko
OL
🇺🇦Oleksandr Leonenko
ELO 1479
FormLLWWL
46%
54%
🌟Leonenko rarely covers set handicap as favourite 23% (22)
Fair odds · Leonenko
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 38% · 2.66· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~77 pts
1-3
20%
2-3
20%
3-2
18%
3-1
17%
0-3
14%
Elo Gap+39
H2H4-15
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.