29 Jun · 11:45 MESZMedium · Model Lean
LR
🇺🇦Lukas Rulc
ELO 1548
FormLLWLW
57%Win chancemodel fair 1.75Heinzl
LH
🇺🇦Lukas Heinzl
ELO 1613
FormWWLLW
43%
57%
🔥 Underdog lean · Rulc🌟Rulc covers set handicap as underdog 72% (29)
Fair odds · Heinzl
Model 57% · 1.75vsMarket 56% · 1.79· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~79 pts
1-3
22%
2-3
20%
3-2
17%
3-1
16%
0-3
15%
Elo Gap+65
H2H17-10
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+65)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (17-10)