29 Jun · 10:30 MESZLow · Slight Edge
IE
🇺🇦Ihor Emets
ELO 1536
FormLLLWW
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Karpenko
OK
🇺🇦Oleh Karpenko
ELO 1570
FormLWWLW
46%
54%
🌟Emets stays under total as underdog 63% (19)
Fair odds · Karpenko
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 72% · 1.39· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 34%Total ~74 pts
1-3
20%
2-3
19%
3-2
18%
3-1
17%
0-3
14%
Elo Gap+34
H2H28-6
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.