29 Jun · 13:40 MESZMedium · Model Lean
VM
🇺🇦Vitalii S Marushchak
ELO 1529
FormWWWLW
59%Win chancemodel fair 1.69Yurkov
AY
🇺🇦Artem Yurkov
ELO 1618
FormLWWWL
41%
59%
🔥 Underdog lean · Marushchak
Fair odds · Yurkov
Model 59% · 1.69vsMarket 62% · 1.60· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 39%Total ~78 pts
1-3
23%
2-3
20%
0-3
17%
3-2
16%
3-1
15%
Elo Gap+89
H2H66-42
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+89)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (66-42)