29 Jun · 14:25 MESZMedium · Model Lean
MP
🇺🇦Mykhailo Potapov
ELO 1545
FormWLLWW
55%Win chancemodel fair 1.82Storozhenko
OS
🇺🇦Oleksandr Storozhenko
ELO 1590
FormLWWLW
45%
55%
Fair odds · Storozhenko
Model 55% · 1.82vsMarket 62% · 1.60· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~76 pts
1-3
21%
2-3
20%
3-2
18%
3-1
17%
0-3
15%
Elo Gap+45
H2H7-2
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+45)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (7-2)