29 Jun · 14:20 MESZLow · Coin Flip
OL
🇺🇦Oleksandr Lipeiko
ELO 1487
FormLWLLL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Lipeiko
OL
🇺🇦Oleksandr Leonenko
ELO 1479
FormLLWWL
51%
49%
🌟Leonenko goes over total as underdog 69% (26)
Fair odds · Lipeiko
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 76% · 1.31· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 32%Total ~76 pts
3-1
19%
3-2
19%
2-3
19%
1-3
18%
3-0
13%
Elo Gap+8
H2H7-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.