29 Jun · 13:30 MESZLow · Slight Edge
JJ
🇺🇦Jakub Dufek Jnr
ELO 1468
FormWWLLL
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Holub
MH
🇺🇦Martin Holub
ELO 1506
FormWLWWW
46%
54%
🌟Jnr stays under total as underdog 67% (12)
Fair odds · Holub
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 54% · 1.86· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~77 pts
1-3
20%
2-3
19%
3-2
18%
3-1
17%
0-3
14%
Elo Gap+38
H2H26-22
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.