29 Jun · 14:35 MESZLow · Coin Flip
IK
🇺🇦Ivan Kozachuk
ELO 1621
FormWWLWL
50%Win chancemodel fair 2.00Shcherbak
DS
🇺🇦Denys Shcherbak
ELO 1624
FormLWWWW
50%
50%
🌟Kozachuk stays under total as underdog 70% (30)
Fair odds · Shcherbak
Model 50% · 2.00vsMarket 44% · 2.27· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 31%Total ~75 pts
1-3
19%
2-3
19%
3-2
19%
3-1
19%
0-3
13%
Elo Gap+3
H2H27-26
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.