29 Jun · 15:15 MESZLow · Slight Edge
PP
🇺🇦Petr Provaznik
ELO 1510
FormWLLLW
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Provaznik
RM
🇺🇦Roman Merkl
ELO 1494
FormWLWWW
52%
48%
🌟Merkl covers set handicap as underdog 77% (22)
Fair odds · Provaznik
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 46% · 2.16· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 33%Total ~79 pts
3-1
19%
3-2
19%
2-3
18%
1-3
18%
3-0
13%
Elo Gap+16
H2H8-9
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.