30 Jun · 07:00 MESZLow · Slight Edge
OP
🇺🇦Oleh Ponomarenko
ELO 1375
FormLWLWL
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Novakov
DN
🇺🇦Daniil Novakov
ELO 1412
FormLLWLL
46%
54%
🌟Novakov rarely covers set handicap as favourite 25% (16)
Fair odds · Novakov
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 49% · 2.06· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~77 pts
1-3
20%
2-3
19%
3-2
18%
3-1
17%
0-3
14%
Elo Gap+37
H2H2-10
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.