30 Jun · 10:55 MESZLow · Slight Edge
SP
🇺🇦Serhii Prus
ELO 1540
FormLLWLW
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Fashchevskyi
IF
🇺🇦Ivan Fashchevskyi
ELO 1563
FormWWLWW
47%
53%
🔥 Underdog lean · Prus🌟Prus covers set handicap as underdog 92% (12)
Fair odds · Fashchevskyi
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 58% · 1.73· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 33%Total ~76 pts
1-3
20%
2-3
19%
3-2
18%
3-1
18%
0-3
14%
Elo Gap+23
H2H16-10
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.