30 Jun · 13:35 MESZLow · Slight Edge
SR
🇺🇦Serhii Rak
ELO 1610
FormWLWLW
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Rak
IR
🇺🇦Ivan Romaniak
ELO 1581
FormWLWLL
53%
47%
🔥 Underdog lean · Romaniak🌟Romaniak covers set handicap as underdog 81% (36)
Fair odds · Rak
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 59% · 1.70· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 34%Total ~78 pts
3-1
20%
3-2
19%
2-3
18%
1-3
18%
3-0
14%
Elo Gap+29
H2H37-17
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.