30 Jun · 06:35 MESZMedium · Model Lean
DP
🇺🇦Denys Pesternikov
ELO 1683
FormLLWWW
57%Win chancemodel fair 1.75Pesternikov
DS
🇺🇦Denys Shcherbak
ELO 1621
FormWLLLW
57%
43%
🔥 Underdog lean · Shcherbak🌟Pesternikov rarely covers set handicap as favourite 33% (24)
Fair odds · Pesternikov
Model 57% · 1.75vsMarket 51% · 1.94· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~79 pts
3-1
21%
3-2
20%
2-3
17%
1-3
16%
3-0
15%
Elo Gap+62
H2H33-22
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+62)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (33-22)