30 Jun · 12:05 MESZLow · Slight Edge
IR
🇺🇦Ivan Romaniak
ELO 1581
FormWLWLL
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Shcherbak
DS
🇺🇦Denys Shcherbak
ELO 1621
FormWLLLW
46%
54%
🌟Romaniak covers set handicap as underdog 81% (36)
Fair odds · Shcherbak
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 54% · 1.86· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~79 pts
1-3
20%
2-3
20%
3-2
18%
3-1
17%
0-3
14%
Elo Gap+40
H2H25-22
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.