30 Jun · 11:30 MESZLow · Coin Flip
OP
🇺🇦Oleh Ponomarenko
ELO 1375
FormLWLWL
50%Win chancemodel fair 2.00Semenets
SS
🇺🇦Serhii Semenets
ELO 1375
FormWLLLW
50%
50%
Fair odds · Semenets
Model 50% · 2.00vsMarket 41% · 2.43· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 31%Total ~79 pts
1-3
19%
2-3
19%
3-2
19%
3-1
19%
0-3
13%
Elo Gap+0
H2H11-9
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.