30 Jun · 12:30 MESZMedium · Model Lean
VM
🇺🇦Vitalii Mukhin
ELO 1421
FormLLWWL
55%Win chancemodel fair 1.82Mukhin
OP
🇺🇦Oleh Ponomarenko
ELO 1375
FormLWLWL
55%
45%
Fair odds · Mukhin
Model 55% · 1.82vsMarket 75% · 1.33· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~78 pts
3-1
21%
3-2
20%
2-3
18%
1-3
17%
3-0
15%
Elo Gap+46
H2H11-5
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+46)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (11-5)