30 Jun · 07:05 MESZLow · Slight Edge
VK
🇺🇦Valerii Kolesnykov
ELO 1501
FormLWLWW
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Martyniuk
AM
🇺🇦Andrii Martyniuk
ELO 1538
FormLWWWW
46%
54%
🔥 Underdog lean · Kolesnykov🌟Kolesnykov covers set handicap as underdog 77% (22)
Fair odds · Martyniuk
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 39% · 2.55· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 34%Total ~77 pts
1-3
20%
2-3
19%
3-2
18%
3-1
17%
0-3
14%
Elo Gap+37
H2H4-5
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.