30 Jun · 11:05 MESZLow · Slight Edge
SY
🇺🇦Stefan Yakimenko
ELO 1510
FormLLWLW
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Martyniuk
AM
🇺🇦Andrii Martyniuk
ELO 1538
FormLWWWW
47%
53%
🔥 Underdog lean · Yakimenko🌟Martyniuk goes over total as favourite 67% (12)
Fair odds · Martyniuk
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 56% · 1.79· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 34%Total ~78 pts
1-3
20%
2-3
19%
3-2
18%
3-1
18%
0-3
14%
Elo Gap+28
H2H1-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.