30 Jun · 13:15 MESZLow · Slight Edge
OC
🇺🇦Ondrej Chadima
ELO 1500
FormWWWWW
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Chadima
MV
🇺🇦Martin Vorel
ELO 1478
FormLWLLL
52%
48%
🔥 Underdog lean · Vorel🌟Chadima rarely covers set handicap as favourite 24% (17)
Fair odds · Chadima
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 36% · 2.81· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 33%Total ~77 pts
3-1
20%
3-2
19%
2-3
18%
1-3
18%
3-0
13%
Elo Gap+22
H2H11-20
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.