30 Jun · 07:15 MESZLow · Slight Edge
MU
🇺🇦Miloslav Ullman
ELO 1463
FormWLWWW
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Makara
MM
🇺🇦Michal Makara
ELO 1504
FormLWLWW
46%
54%
🔥 Underdog lean · Ullman🌟Makara rarely covers set handicap as favourite 27% (15)
Fair odds · Makara
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 50% · 2.00· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~79 pts
1-3
20%
2-3
20%
3-2
18%
3-1
17%
0-3
14%
Elo Gap+41
H2H15-18
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.