30 Jun · 12:40 MESZMedium · Model Lean
YK
🇺🇦Yaroslav Kovshun
ELO 1534
FormLLLWW
55%Win chancemodel fair 1.82Karpenko
OK
🇺🇦Oleh Karpenko
ELO 1586
FormWWWWL
45%
55%
🌟Kovshun stays under total as underdog 62% (16)
Fair odds · Karpenko
Model 55% · 1.82vsMarket 46% · 2.19· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~76 pts
1-3
21%
2-3
20%
3-2
18%
3-1
17%
0-3
15%
Elo Gap+52
H2H10-18
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+52)
- ✓Better recent form (4-1)