30 Jun · 11:45 MESZLow · Slight Edge
MV
🇺🇦Martin Vorel
ELO 1478
FormLWLLL
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Vana
MV
🇺🇦Miroslav Vana
ELO 1493
FormWLWLL
48%
52%
🔥 Underdog lean · Vorel🌟Vorel covers set handicap as underdog 67% (12)
Fair odds · Vana
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 39% · 2.55· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 33%Total ~76 pts
1-3
19%
2-3
19%
3-2
18%
3-1
18%
0-3
13%
Elo Gap+15
H2H10-21
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.