30 Jun · 09:00 MESZLow · Slight Edge
LH
🇺🇦Lukas Heinzl
ELO 1605
FormWLWLW
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Heinzl
MK
🇺🇦Martin Kocvara
ELO 1565
FormWWWWW
54%
46%
🔥 Underdog lean · Kocvara🌟Heinzl rarely covers set handicap as favourite 32% (41)
Fair odds · Heinzl
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 75% · 1.34· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~77 pts
3-1
20%
3-2
20%
2-3
18%
1-3
17%
3-0
14%
Elo Gap+40
H2H2-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.