30 Jun · 08:45 MESZLow · Coin Flip
PF
🇺🇦Pavel Fencl
ELO 1515
FormLWLLW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Fencl
MM
🇺🇦Michal Makara
ELO 1504
FormLWLWW
51%
49%
🌟Makara covers set handicap as underdog 63% (41)
Fair odds · Fencl
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 50% · 2.00· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 32%Total ~81 pts
3-1
19%
3-2
19%
2-3
19%
1-3
18%
3-0
13%
Elo Gap+11
H2H3-5
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.