30 Jun · 12:00 MESZLow · Slight Edge
JH
🇺🇦Josef Hanacek
ELO 1427
FormLWLLW
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Jnr
JJ
🇺🇦Jakub Dufek Jnr
ELO 1463
FormLLWWW
46%
54%
🔥 Underdog lean · Hanacek🌟Hanacek covers set handicap as underdog 65% (20)
Fair odds · Jnr
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 28% · 3.58· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 34%Total ~77 pts
1-3
20%
2-3
19%
3-2
18%
3-1
17%
0-3
14%
Elo Gap+36
H2H0-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.