30 Jun · 14:00 MESZMedium · Model Lean
SB
🇺🇦Serhii Balabei
ELO 1733
FormWWWWL
56%Win chancemodel fair 1.79Horokh
RH
🇺🇦Roman Horokh
ELO 1786
FormWLLWW
44%
56%
🌟Balabei stays under total as underdog 70% (23)
Fair odds · Horokh
Model 56% · 1.79vsMarket 54% · 1.86· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~77 pts
1-3
21%
2-3
20%
3-2
18%
3-1
17%
0-3
15%
Elo Gap+53
H2H138-77
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+53)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (138-77)