30 Jun · 15:25 MESZMedium · Model Lean
SP
🇺🇦Serhii Pitsyk
ELO 1554
FormLWWLL
55%Win chancemodel fair 1.82Pitsyk
MF
🇺🇦Mykyta Fomin
ELO 1504
FormWLWWL
55%
45%
🌟Fomin goes over total as underdog 68% (28)
Fair odds · Pitsyk
Model 55% · 1.82vsMarket 65% · 1.55· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~79 pts
3-1
21%
3-2
20%
2-3
18%
1-3
17%
3-0
15%
Elo Gap+50
H2H8-3
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+50)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (8-3)