1 Jul · 10:30 MESZLow · Slight Edge
OZ
🇺🇦Oleksandr Ziakun
ELO 1440
FormLLLLW
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Ponomarenko
DP
🇺🇦Dmytro Ponomarenko
ELO 1459
FormLLLLL
48%
52%
Fair odds · Ponomarenko
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 38% · 2.67· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 33%Total ~80 pts
1-3
20%
2-3
19%
3-2
18%
3-1
18%
0-3
13%
Elo Gap+19
H2H0-1
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.