1 Jul · 18:00 MESZLow · Slight Edge
SB
🇺🇦Serhii Balabei
ELO 1738
FormWLWWW
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Horokh
RH
🇺🇦Roman Horokh
ELO 1767
FormLWWWL
47%
53%
🌟Balabei stays under total as underdog 70% (23)
Fair odds · Horokh
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 56% · 1.79· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 34%Total ~75 pts
1-3
20%
2-3
19%
3-2
18%
3-1
18%
0-3
14%
Elo Gap+29
H2H138-78
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.